Leading opposition figures in Nigeria issued a collective warning on Friday, alleging that the country is drifting toward a de facto one party state due to the weaponization of state institutions against political rivals by the administration of President Bola Tinubu.
In a detailed joint statement, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Governor and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi and former Senate President David Mark presented a collective indictment of the current political climate. The leaders argued that the government is systematically using federal agencies to stifle dissent and consolidate power ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The rare display of unity among the opposition comes as the political landscape shifts rapidly. Since the 2023 elections, a wave of high profile defections has bolstered the ranks of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), often involving individuals previously under investigation by federal authorities. Opposition leaders contend these moves are not born of ideological shifts but are a survival mechanism against state sponsored pressure.
Central to the opposition’s grievance is the alleged politicization of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). The coalition, which includes several ranking members of the National Assembly, asserted that the anti-graft agency has become an instrument of political persecution.
The statement alleges that investigations are frequently initiated or accelerated against opposition members who refuse to align with the presidency, while those who defect to the APC often see their legal troubles sidelined or dismissed. The opposition coalition framed the situation as part of a broader, deliberate strategy by the APC to consolidate power.
The coalition warned that the current trajectory threatens the stability of the federation. They argued that by attempting to bring all 36 states under the control of a single party, the administration is eroding the checks and balances necessary for a functional democracy.
The accusations gained fresh momentum following reports that Taraba State Governor Agbu Kefas has been formally registered with the APC. While the governor has not yet made a public declaration, the administrative steps toward his defection mark him as the sixth governor to move toward the ruling party in recent months, following the earlier defections of governors from Benue, Cross River, Sokoto, Akwa Ibom and Ebonyi states.
The APC has celebrated these acquisitions as evidence of the president’s successful “Renewed Hope” agenda. However, critics point out a recurring pattern where governors from resource-rich or strategically vital states face sudden federal scrutiny shortly before announcing their intentions to join the ruling party.
Civil society groups have echoed some of these concerns, noting that the concentration of power within the executive branch often leads to a decrease in legislative oversight and a weakened judiciary. In many states where governors have defected, the local houses of assembly and traditional structures typically follow, effectively eliminating any formal opposition at the regional level.
In response, the presidency offered a sharp dismissal of the critics. Senior aides to President Tinubu characterized the opposition leaders as “failed politicians” seeking relevance, unable to reconcile with their loss in the previous election cycle.
The administration maintained that the defections are voluntary and driven by confidence in the president’s economic reform agenda and a desire for national unity. The presidency argued that the opposition’s claims are a desperate attempt to remain relevant while their own internal party structures collapse due to poor leadership.
Simultaneously, the EFCC issued a statement affirming its independence and operational neutrality. The commission stated that its mandate is to investigate financial crimes regardless of political affiliation. The statement urged all individuals under investigation to cooperate with the process rather than resort to what it called “politically motivated accusations.”
Political analysts note that Nigeria has a long history of contentious interactions between anti corruption bodies and the opposition. Successive administrations have faced accusations of bias since the EFCC was established in 2003. While the agency has been pivotal in high profile prosecutions, its perceived independence has often been a subject of public debate.
The opposition’s statement extended beyond accusations to propose a series of institutional reforms. They argued that the current structure of the EFCC allows for too much executive interference and proposed that the agency’s leadership be insulated from political appointments.
The opposition leaders emphasized that these measures are necessary to restore public trust. They argued that without an independent review of the last decade, the government’s anti-corruption drive will continue to be viewed as a tool for partisan advantage.
The political tension is unfolding against a backdrop of significant economic hardship. Since taking office, President Tinubu has implemented several controversial policies, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira. While these moves have been praised by international financial institutions, they have led to record high inflation and a cost of living crisis.
The opposition has sought to link the political consolidation to these economic challenges. They argue that the government is seeking a one party state to insulate itself from the electoral consequences of its economic policies. By neutralizing the opposition now, the APC could theoretically face a weakened field in 2027 despite public grievances.
As the 2027 general election approaches, the dynamics between the ruling party and the opposition remain contentious. The potential merger of opposition parties into a single “mega-party” under the banner of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has been discussed for months.
The joint statement by Abubakar and Obi suggests a narrowing of those gaps, driven by what they perceive as an existential threat. Analysts suggest that if the opposition cannot find a way to counter the APC’s institutional advantages, the 2027 election may see a significantly less competitive field than the 2023 cycle.
For now, the focus is on the integrity of Nigeria’s democratic institutions. Accusations of state capture and the use of law enforcement raise crucial questions about the future of the continent’s largest democracy. How this conflict evolves, analysts say, will significantly shape the trajectory of Nigeria’s democracy, testing the resilience of its institutions and the nature of political competition in Africa’s most populous nation.